Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums are again flashing a warning sign for households that buy their own health insurance, according to new analysis of preliminary 2027 rate filings.
KFF said on July 8, 2026, that 77 insurers with publicly available filings across 16 states and Washington, D.C., are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027. The Associated Press separately reported the findings and noted that the increase would follow a 20% median finalized rate increase for 2026.
The numbers are not final prices yet. They are early filings that regulators can review, revise or reject depending on state rules. But they offer one of the clearest early looks at what insurers expect for next year and why many marketplace shoppers may need to budget for higher costs.
The numbers
KFF's review found a proposed median increase of 14% for 2027. The group said the filings point to a likely second consecutive year of double-digit premium increases, after a steep climb in 2026.
- July 15, 2026: CMS lists this as the secondary deadline for qualified health plan issuers to submit corrected application data.
- August 12, 2026: CMS lists this as the final deadline for issuers to change qualified health plan applications.
- Later in 2026: State and federal review processes are expected to determine which requested rates become final for 2027 plans.
The filings cited several cost drivers: hospital care, physician visits, prescription drugs, specialty medications, provider wages, inflation, regulatory changes and a smaller risk pool after enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025.
Why shoppers should pay attention
The full premium increase does not hit every marketplace enrollee in the same way. Many ACA shoppers still qualify for subsidies, which can soften the effect of higher sticker prices. The biggest exposure is for people who do not qualify for financial help, including some middle-income households buying coverage outside an employer plan.
KFF said people with incomes at 400% or more of the federal poverty level lost enhanced subsidies when the temporary credits expired. AP reported that this group includes households earning about $63,000 for one person or about $129,000 for a family of four in 2026.
There is also a risk-pool effect. When coverage becomes more expensive for healthier people, some may leave the market. Insurers then price plans for a smaller and potentially sicker group of enrollees, which can push premiums higher again.
What to check next
Consumers do not need to choose a 2027 plan yet, but the filing season is a good time to get organized. Start by checking whether your state posts preliminary rate filings, whether your current insurer is requesting a large change, and whether your household income estimate may affect subsidy eligibility.
Also check more than the monthly premium. Deductibles, provider networks, drug coverage, out-of-pocket maximums and whether a plan is still offered in your county can matter as much as the headline rate. CMS's 2027 marketplace rule also gives issuers more flexibility in plan design, which means plan comparisons may require closer reading.
The bottom line: a 14% median proposed increase is not a final bill, but it is an early signal that ACA shoppers should expect a careful comparison season for 2027 coverage.
